U.S. Retail Divergence: Sales Dip -0.6% as E-Commerce Soars 22% in Pre-Holiday Shift

As the critical holiday season accelerates, new analytics for the September through November 2025 period reveal a stark "K-shaped" divergence in the U.S. retail landscape writes author James Dean @EvoRelic.com. Market research data shows that total U.S. retail sales have slipped -0.6% year-over-year (YoY), dragged down by inflation-weary consumers pivoting sharply toward essentials, but the digital economy tells a completely different story. Brick-and-mortar foot traffic is projected to finish the quarter flat to down -3%, yet e-commerce has surged with a massive +22% YoY increase, driven by aggressive purchasing in DIY tools, electronics, and apparel jackets—a trifecta likely fueled by the "stay-and-renovate" housing trend and forecasts for a harsh 2025 winter. Perhaps most surprisingly, amid this pullback on general discretionary goods, the "alternative investment" class of collectibles is defying gravity: markets for sports cards, rare coins, vintage toys, and fine art are all posting significant growth as buyers seek tangible alternative assets.

Why These Specific Items Are Leading (Contextual Analysis)

• DIY Tools & "Stay-and-Renovate": With 2025 mortgage rates keeping many homeowners "locked in," spending has shifted from buying new homes to fixing current ones. This aligns with the surge in DIY tool sales as people prepare for winter.

• Apparel (Jackets): Meteorological forecasts for a "colder, snowier December" in the Northern U.S. (La Niña patterns) are likely driving the specific spike in heavy outerwear and jacket sales earlier in the season than usual.

• Collectibles as a "Safe Haven": The growth in rare coins and fine art mirrors a common trend during economic uncertainty (like the -0.6% retail slip). When cash feels unstable due to inflation, investors often move money into "hard assets" like gold coins or blue-chip collectibles.

Detailed U.S. Retail Sector Performance (Sept – Nov 2025)

While the retail sales data shows a steady climb driven by prices, the foot traffic data paints a more complex picture of the American consumer: they are making fewer trips, but those trips are far more deliberate.

The findings are also supported by data from other private analytics firms (Placer.ai, Sensormatic, RetailNext) reveals a distinct "U-shaped" pattern for this period: a sharp dip in September followed by an aggressive rebound in October, setting the stage for a "promotional-dependent" November.

The "U-Shaped" Traffic Trend

September 2025: The Post-Summer Slump

• Traffic Status: Down. After a decent Back-to-School season in August, shoppers largely stayed home.

• The Data:

• Indoor Malls: Visits dropped 1.9% Year-over-Year (YoY) according to Placer.ai 
  

• Outlet Malls: Hit hardest, seeing wider declines as consumers pulled back on discretionary browsing. 
  

• Restaurants: Reported their 8th consecutive month of traffic declines. 
  

• The "Why": This was the "hangover" month. Families finished school spending in August and paused discretionary trips to save for the upcoming holidays.

October 2025: The Early Holiday Surge

• Traffic Status: Strong Rebound. Shoppers returned to stores much earlier than usual, effectively pulling the holiday season forward.
  

• The Data:

• Indoor Malls: Surged 6.1% Month-over-Month (vs. September).
  

• Outlet Malls: Saw a massive 7.9% Month-over-Month jump, highlighting the consumer's hunt for value/deals.

• YoY Growth: Unlike September, October traffic was positive across all mall formats compared to 2024.
  

• The "Why": "Techtober" events (like Best Buy's sales competing with Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days) drove people to physical stores to compare prices. Shoppers are treating October as the new "start" of the holiday season to spread out costs.
  

November 2025: The "Event-Driven" Shopper

• Traffic Status: Strategic & Spiky. Traffic is not a steady flow; it is surging only on specific promotional event days.
  

• Early November Snapshot (Red Cup Day):

• On Nov 13 (Starbucks Red Cup Day), foot traffic surged 8.2% YoY and was 44.5% higher than a typical daily average. This proves consumers will show up physically, but only for a specific high-value "event."
  

• Holiday Forecast (Late Nov):

• Black Friday (Nov 28): Sensormatic predicts this will remain the busiest in-store shopping day of the year.

• Overall Season Outlook: Despite the busy days, total holiday foot traffic is predicted to be flat to -3% YoY.
  

• The "Why": Shoppers are consolidating trips. Instead of browsing three times a week, they visit once, stay longer, and buy more (trip consolidation).
  

Summary of Shopper Behavior (Sept–Nov)